Diagoras of Melos was known to be the first atheist recorded in Western history. He was once shown the gifts of gratitude the seamen offered to god after having survived terrible storms.

He asked, “Show me the gifts offered by those who drowned”.

Diagoras has hence entered history as the first outed atheist for his irreverence. Centuries later, Diagoras’s argument is known as “Survivorship Bias”.

The bias occurs when we assume a visible successful subgroup as the entire group.

Abraham Wald, a statistician known for studying the WW2 aircraft, coined the term. His team studied the aircraft that took a heavy beating in the war but successfully returned. The idea was to figure out the most vulnerable segments and reinforce them.

However, it later occurred to them that the aircraft that took the most damage never returned to the base! The team had fallen prey to survivorship bias.

We all fall into this trap.

Every coin has two sides. Looking at the brighter side helps us to be motivated. Keeps us on track. Survivorship bias doesn’t mean you don’t consider that there is another side. It means you “don’t know there is an “other” side!

How to evade this trap? Just question! Be like Diagoras!

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